Violent Crime in Australia: Interpreting the Trends

Fear of violent crime is greater today than in recent memory. So too are Australian police statistics on the incidence of violent crime. The interpretation of crime statistics and of public attitudes should, however, be undertaken with care. Even before this year’s tragic massacre at Port Arthur, most Australians had formed the impression that violence in our society had reached unprecedented levels. Yet analysis of the data show that the situation is more complex. By all accounts, violence was significantly higher in 19th century Australia than it is today. Although homicide rates have almost doubled since the end of World War Two, they have remained relatively stable for the past 20 years. This paper suggests that homicide levels are a good indicator of levels of violence generally, and that as homicide data are reliable and show no increase in the rate of homicide, it follows that trends in non-lethal violence are commensurate. Evidence for this is borne out by victimisation surveys. This proposition will certainly generate debate, and can be tested only by regular, standardised, comparable victim surveys. There are two main sources of authoritative data in Australia, police data and victim survey data. While police statistics on non-fatal forms of violence such as assault show dramatic increases over the past 20 years, victim survey data reveal no increase in this offence. The essay which follows explores this apparent paradox. It might also be suggested that increases in statistics of reported violent crime reflect an improved proficiency in recording by police of operational data, and growing intolerance by public and by police of aggressive behaviour which a generation ago would not have been defined as criminal. One needs only look to domestic violence for an illustrative example of violent crime which, although historically common, has only recently begun to attract the attention of the criminal justice system. There are, however, certain aspects of Australian life which appear to carry greater risks than in the past. One might speculate, for example, that extended trading hours might be associated with more alcohol-related aggressive behaviour in certain settings. Although this paper argues that trend data on violence do not paint a picture of significant growth, it should not be interpreted to suggest that the level of violence in Australia today is in any way acceptable. The contribution of this paper lies in the insights which it provides on the analysis and interpretation of crime statistics, and its identification of such important underlying factors as changes in the demographic profile of Australian society. It also helps provide a context for important policy initiatives such as the Australian Violence Prevention Awards, and the National Campaign Against Violence and Crime.